Hydrometeorological phenomena detected through a citizen-science seismic network in Los Cabos (2024-2025)
Fenómenos hidrometeorológicos detectados mediante una red sísmica de ciencia ciudadana en Los Cabos (2024-2025)
Roberto Ortega1,*, Dana Carciumaru2
, Luis Quintanar3, Victor H. Espíndola3, Jesus Pérez Santana3, Raúl Ochoa Terán4, Graciela Tiburcio Pintos5, Ignacio Leal Orozco5, José Luis Escalante Arriola5, Francisco E. Patiño Velis5, Greg Noela5, Estela Figueroa5
1 Unidad Académica La Paz, Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada. C. Miraflores 334, Bella Vista, 23050 La Paz, Baja California Sur, México.
2 Unidad Académica La Paz, Secretaría de Ciencias, Humanidades, Tecnología e Innovación (SEHCITI), Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada. C. Miraflores 334, Bella Vista, 23050 La Paz, Baja California Sur, México.
3 Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Circuito de la Investigación Científica, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510, CDMX, México.
4 Orbis Consultores en Geología y Geofísica. Carretera a CD. Sahagún Bodega 4 Ext. 527, Industrial La Paz, 42186 Mineral de la Reforma, Hidalgo, México.
5 Organización para la Sustentabilidad y la Conservación del Medio Ambiente (SyCOMA). Ernesto Chánez Chávez Local 5, Ampliación Santa Rosa, 23428 San José del Cabo, Baja California Sur, México.
* Corresponding author: (R. Ortega) This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
How to cite this article:
Ortega, R., Carciumaru, D., Quintanar, L., Espíndola, V. H., Pérez Santana, J., Ochoa Terán, R., Tiburcio Pintos, G., Leal Orozco, I., Escalante Arriola, J. L., Patiño Velis, F. E., Noela, G., & Figueroa, E. (2026). Hydrometeorological phenomena detected through a citizen-science seismic network in Los Cabos (2024-2025). Boletín de la Sociedad Geológica Mexicana, 78(2), A271125. https:// doi.org/10.18268/BSGM2026v78n2A271125
Manuscript received: August 1, 2025. Corrected manuscript received: November 15, 2025. Manuscript accepted: November 27, 2025.
ABSTRACT
In 2024-2025, a prolonged seismic swarm unfolded in the Los Cabos region of Baja California Sur, Mexico, within one of the country’s most densely developed coastal corridors. Residents and scientists rapidly identified the sequence as a sustained swarm with no mainshock. A collaborative deployment of low-cost seismic stations—installed in private homes with citizen support—enabled near-real-time monitoring and waveform analysis. Over 8000 events were recorded between August 2024 and May 2025, revealing episodic bursts of seismicity separated by calm intervals. A strong rainfall event, delivering over 47 mm of precipitation in just three hours, preceded the onset of a highly localized seismic cluster west of the San José fault. Analysis of this cluster showed upward depth migration and radial spreading over a ~20-day period. Statistical evaluation of the seismicity within this zone revealed anomalously high b-values, ranging from 1.6 to 2.6, with a preferred value of b = 2.0 for Mc = 1.6. These results deviate significantly from tectonic backgrounds (b ≈ 1.0), supporting the hypothesis of fluid-induced seismicity driven by pressure diffusion. Diffusive modeling of the space-time envelope yielded a best-fit hydraulic diffusivity of D ≈ 1.7 m²/s, consistent with values reported in other natural and anthropogenic fluid-driven swarms. We emphasize the importance of integrating meteorological, hydrological, and seismological observations and show that community-based, ethically grounded monitoring—where data collection is transparent, conducted with informed consent, and locally co-designed— can overcome institutional and logistical barriers that often limit long-term seismic and hydrological surveillance.
Keywords: seismic swarm, hydraulic diffusivity, fluid‑induced seismicity, citizen science, Los Cabos, Mexico.