Study of the 2012 lahar on Iztaccíhuatl Volcano (Central Mexico) based on geomorphology, botanical evidence and 2D modeling
Estudio del lahar de 2012 en el volcán Iztaccíhuatl (México central) a partir de geomorfología, evidencia botánica y modelación 2D
José Ernesto Figueroa-García1,*, Osvaldo Franco-Ramos2, Lizeth Caballero3, Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas4, José María Bodoque5
1 Posgrado en Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Ciudad Universitaria, 04510, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, México.
2 Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Ciudad Universitaria, 04510, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, México.
3 Escuela Nacional de Ciencias de la Tierra, ENCiT. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Ciudad Universitaria, 04510, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, México.
4 National Museum of Natural Sciences, Spanish Research Council, MNCN-CSIC, C/ Serrano 115bis, 28006, Madrid, Spain.
5 Department of Mining and Geological Engineering, University of Castilla-La Mancha. Av. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain.
* Corresponding author: (J.E. Figueroa-García) This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
How to cite this article:
Figueroa-García, J.E., Franco-Ramos, O., Caballero, L., Ballesteros-Cánovas, J.A., Bodoque, J.M., 2025, Study of the 2012 lahar on Iztaccíhuatl Volcano (Central Mexico) based on geomorphology, botanical evidence and 2D modeling: Boletín de la Sociedad Geológica Mexicana, 77(3), A300625. http://dx.doi.org/10.18268/BSGM2025v77n3a300625
Manuscript received: March 10, 2025. Corrected manuscript received: June 24, 2025. Manuscript accepted: June 27, 2025.
ABSTRACT
Lahars are high-energy surface processes capable of drastically transforming landscapes as they move downhill. These events often pose significant risks to populations living in volcanic mountain regions worldwide. Understanding the triggering mechanisms and spatio-temporal flow dynamics of lahars is crucial for anticipating their impacts. Although this geomorphological process has been analyzed in a number of volcanic areas, there are still regions where data concerning its triggers and behavior during its development is lacking. In this study, we applied a retrospective approach using field assessments, dendrogeomorphological methods, and numerical simulations to analyze a lahar event that occurred in the Alcalican Valley of the Iztaccíhuatl volcano (Mexico). Scars on existing pine trees (Pinus hartwegii sp.) served as benchmarks to estimate the event’s discharge as well as their spatial extent, using the open-source software HEC-RAS. Additionally, a thorough review of meteorological data was conducted to ascertain the probable triggering mechanisms of the event. The findings of this study suggest that the 2012 lahar event was triggered by rainfall associated with the impact of Hurricane Ernesto, which occurred between August 1st and 10th, 2012. During this period, a total of 230 mm of accumulated rainfall was recorded, with a maximum of 48 mm in a 24-hour period on August 5th. The maximum runout distance was estimated to be 750 m from the point at which the main channel begins to exhibit a single course, with a peak discharge rate of 5 m³/s. The lahar’s maximum flow thickness reached 3 m, resulting in an estimated total volume of 3x104 m3. Our analysis provides valuable baseline data for developing risk management strategies for the Iztaccíhuatl-Popocatépetl National Park. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate the added value of integrating multiple techniques to retrospectively gather information on past lahar events worldwide.
Keywords: lahar, Iztaccíhuatl Volcano, dendrogeomorphology, Paleo stage indicators, numerical modelling.