Boletín de la Sociedad Geológica Mexicana Volumen 75, núm. 2, A080523, 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.18268/BSGM2023v75n2a080523

Estimación espacio-temporal de la distribución de la recarga potencial en el Valle de Toluca

Space-time estimation of the distribution of potential recharge in the Toluca Valley

Cecilia Rodríguez-Campero^1,*, Jaime Garfias¹, Richard Martel², Ignacio Navarro-de León³

¹ Instituto Interamericano de Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua (IITCA), Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca, 50130, Edo. México, México.

² Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS-ETE), Quebec, QC G1K 9A9, Canadá.

³ Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra (FCT-UANL), Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León. 67700, Linares, Nuevo León, México.

* Autor para correspondencia:(C. Rodríguez- Campero) This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Cómo citar este artículo:

Rodríguez-Campero, C., Garfias, J., Martel, R., Navarro-de León, I., 2023, Estimación espacio-temporal de la distribución de la recarga potencial en el Valle de Toluca: Boletín de la Sociedad Geológica Mexicana, 75 (2), A080523. http://dx.doi.org/10.18268/BSGM2023v75n2a080523

Manuscrito recibido: 17 de Febrero de 2023; Manuscrito corregido: 5 de Mayo de 2023; Manuscrito aceptado: 8 de Mayo de 2023.

ABSTRACT

Estimating potential recharge is essential to water resource management, urban/agricultural development planning, and the definition of pumping rates to prevent or mitigate aquifer overexploitation. In the Toluca Valley, high extraction rates have induced piezometric declines accompanied by a water imbalance exceeding the average annual recharge volume. In this study, a daily soil moisture balance was developed for estimating historical and future potential recharge. The analysis period includes 1980 to 2021 and a projection until 2050 based on three probable scenarios of precipitation, temperature, and urban growth. The results indicate an average annual recharge volume of 369.5 Mm³ with a 174.5 mm/year rate, reaching 355.7 mm/year in wet seasons. The spatial distribution suggests a recharge conditioned in the mountainous areas mainly by the climatology and in the center of the Valley by the land use modification. Urban sprawl is a significant factor in increased runoff and the gradual decrease in interception and actual evapotranspiration. The decrease in recharge is a constant in the potential future recharge scenarios. Compared to the historical average, a negative change of 16.59%, 19.99%, and 22.61% is projected for the best, moderate, and bad scenarios, respectively. The potential recharge rates obtained are an initial parameter in regional basin flow models and analyses.

Keywords: Toluca aquifer, potential recharge, soil water balance, land use change.